Mayfield Village, Ohio-based The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is an insurance company that writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft, as well as personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. Valued at a market cap of $164.3 billion, the company also provides business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses, and workers' compensation insurance, particularly for the transportation industry.

Shares of this insurance company have considerably outpaced the broader market over the past 52 weeks. PGR has soared 33% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 12.7%. Moreover, on a YTD basis, the stock is up 17.9%, compared to SPX’s marginal rise. 

Zooming in further, PGR’s outperformance looks less pronounced when compared to the Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF’s (KBWP) 15.9% uptick over the past 52 weeks and 5.7% return on a YTD basis. 

On Apr. 16, shares of PGR closed down marginally after its mixed Q1 earnings release. The company's revenue came in at $20.4 billion, up 18.4% from the year-ago quarter and marginally above Wall Street estimates. A robust 20.2% rise in net premiums earned supported its top-line figure. Meanwhile, its net income grew 10.9% year-over-year to $4.37 per share, aided by higher pretax underwriting profits across both personal and commercial lines. However, the bottom-line figure fell short of analyst expectations, which may have weighed on investor sentiment and led to its downward price movement. 

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect PGR’s EPS to grow 12.2% year over year to $15.77. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It exceeded the consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing on another occasion. 

Among the 21 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy” which is based on 12 “Strong Buy,” two “Moderate Buy,” and seven “Hold” ratings. 

This configuration is slightly more bullish than a month ago, with 11 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy” rating. 

On May 7, Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) analyst Elyse Greenspan maintained an “Overweight” rating on PGR and raised its price target to $328, the Street-high price target, which indicates a 16.1% potential upside from the current levels. 

The mean price target of $300.22 represents a 6.2% premium from PGR’s current price levels.